When Azerbaijani forces retook Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, the decades-long territorial dispute that had defined the South Caucasus seemed to reach a turning point. Armenia’s withdrawal and the exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region closed a chapter in one of the post-Soviet space’s most intractable conflicts. But in the vacuum left behind—militarily, diplomatically, and symbolically—new players are rushing to stake their claims.
The question no longer is who controls Karabakh, but who controls what comes next.
Russia: The Shrinking Security Patron
For much of the post-Soviet period, Russia was the de facto power broker in the South Caucasus. It maintained military bases in Armenia, peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, and influence over all three countries in the region. But Russia’s war in Ukraine has significantly eroded its regional standing.
Armenia, once a close ally of Moscow, now questions the reliability of its protector. When Azerbaijani troops advanced in 2023, Russian peacekeepers stood aside. In Yerevan, that silence was seen not as neutrality—but betrayal.
Public anger spilled into the streets. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has since begun distancing the country from Moscow, skipping CSTO exercises and hinting at closer ties with the West. While Russia remains a military actor, its moral and diplomatic clout in the region is visibly weakening.
Türkiye: From Ally to Regional Architect
With Russia distracted, Türkiye has emerged as the dominant external actor—especially in Azerbaijan. Its support for Baku during the 2020 war and beyond has shifted the regional power balance.
Ankara’s growing military, economic, and cultural influence now extends deep into the South Caucasus. Turkish drones, advisers, and investment have made Azerbaijan not only a partner—but a regional extension of Turkish strategy. There’s even talk of a Zangezur Corridor—a land route connecting Türkiye to Azerbaijan via southern Armenia, something Yerevan sees as a sovereignty threat and Baku sees as regional integration.
Türkiye is no longer just supporting its ethnic cousin—it’s helping redraw the regional map.
Iran: Nervous, Assertive, and Watching Closely
For Iran, the shifting dynamics are troubling. Tehran is wary of both Turkish expansion and a potentially Western-leaning Armenia. It fears being encircled by Turkish and Israeli influence (Baku has close defense ties with Tel Aviv), and it opposes any changes to recognized borders.
Iran has ramped up military drills along its northern border and issued strong warnings against any land corridor that might alter the Armenia–Iran connection. Tehran wants to remain relevant—but its influence remains limited, particularly compared to Ankara or Moscow.
The West: Present, But Peripheral
The European Union and United States have shown increased interest in mediation and development, but their presence remains largely diplomatic. The EU has deployed a civilian mission along the Armenia–Azerbaijan border and facilitated occasional peace talks.
Washington has likewise hosted rounds of negotiations. However, without hard security guarantees or major investments, the West is seen as a moral voice rather than a decisive actor.
Still, Armenia is clearly signaling interest in a Western pivot—deepening EU ties, ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, and holding joint drills with NATO members. Whether this is sustainable remains unclear, especially given Armenia’s dependence on Russian energy and trade routes.
A New Regional Order?
As dust settles over Nagorno-Karabakh, the South Caucasus is entering a period of redefinition. The traditional model of Russian dominance, Armenian dependence, and frozen conflict has crumbled. What replaces it is a fluid, multipolar contest shaped by overlapping ambitions:
- Türkiye seeks to expand its economic and logistical corridors eastward.
- Russia hopes to maintain leverage through military presence and energy ties.
- Iran wants to block any regional transformation that threatens its borders.
- The West eyes a slow expansion of democratic and diplomatic space.
For the small states caught in between—especially Armenia and Georgia—the choices ahead are complex. Realignment offers opportunity, but also vulnerability.
One thing is clear: the South Caucasus may no longer be defined by Nagorno-Karabakh. But the power vacuum it left behind has only just begun to pull the region in new directions.
