Growth Expected to Moderate
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently revised its outlook for global trade growth downward, forecasting that world import growth will slow to 3.1% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026. These adjustments reflect a more cautious global trade environment compared to previous expectations.
However, while the pace of trade growth is moderating, the European Union is actively implementing strategies to maintain economic resilience and continue fostering sustainable growth.
Main Causes Behind the Decline
The ECB points to two major reasons for the decline:
- U.S. tariff measures, which are disrupting global trade flows
- Rising international policy uncertainty, especially around trade agreements and geopolitical tensions
EU’s Strategic Response: Building Resilience and Future Readiness
Rather than focusing solely on external uncertainties, the EU is turning challenges into opportunities by pursuing several key initiatives:
- Trade Diversification: To reduce dependency on any single market, the EU is expanding trade partnerships globally, negotiating new trade agreements, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to access diverse markets.
- Digital Economy: The EU is investing heavily in digital infrastructure and innovation, aiming to boost competitiveness in digital services and products. This transition supports more agile supply chains and opens new avenues for growth less dependent on traditional goods trade.
- Green Transition: The EU’s ambitious Green Deal promotes sustainable industry and energy use, creating new jobs and markets in renewable energy, clean technologies, and circular economy models— areas with growing global demand.
Solid Economic Foundations Within the Eurozone
Alongside these strategic efforts, the eurozone benefits from strong internal factors:
- Continued public investment in infrastructure and innovation supports long-term growth.
- Robust labor markets with rising real incomes boost domestic demand.
- Improved financing conditions help households and businesses remain resilient and adaptive.
Looking Ahead
While the global trade environment evolves, the EU’s proactive policies and diversified economic base position it well to face future challenges. The focus remains on ensuring steady growth by embracing innovation, sustainability, and global cooperation.
